Tyke Hockey

What the hell were you thinking Setoguchi? You learn in tyke hockey that you NEVER pass the puck up the middle in your own zone. Not to mention throwing a no-look-pass up the gut like that. I'm absolutely amazed that that happened in the NHL, let alone the playoffs. Ridiculous. I'm actually angry about such a stupid play and I'm not even a San Jose fan.

Nice little rant there, I love this blogging thing. I just came back from the gym, and that was actually the first gym experience of my life. Good times though, I enjoyed it - especially the leg press thingy (you can see I don't know what I'm talking about), that one gave me confidence.

So San Jose staves off elimination and Montreal is now on the brink. I want both those teams to win their respective series just because they were my predictions. I really couldn't care less either way, but I really do despise the Flyers. Montreal: you are a sad bunch - step it up or pull out the clubs, literally. That's it for tonight, I'm tired and I don't care.

Peace and much love to you.

A Quick NBA Complaint

I'm a Raptors fan, no question. That being said I also like two other teams and for good reasons (to me): the Dallas Mavericks are my second favourite because of Dirk. Dirk is a seven foot tall giant who wins three point competitions and carries his team. I think he is the man. The other team I like is Phoenix. Being Canadian, I will always like whichever team Steve Nash is on, just because he is the also the man (there are multiple "the man" in the world making them one of "the men" rather than "the man," but now I'm just being stupid).

Now, here comes my complaint: ALL THREE TEAMS I GIVE A CRAP ABOUT ARE OUT, AND IN FIVE GAMES! What the hell is that about? Now I'm cheering for the Hornets because Mo-Pete (probably the coolest Raptor of all time) is playing there, otherwise I really don't give a crap about the outcome of the NBA season.

Peace and much love to you.

Wow

Three of four series at 3-0 in the NHL. I don't know what to say to that. Good for those teams, but come on! Pittsburgh is completely dominant, Dallas has two of three victories in OT and Detroit is Detroit. I wish Colorado and San Jose would make some noise - I dislike the Rangers, so whatever to them. I am exhausted after hockey tonight. Our team lost 5-1, but I played pretty well with the second assist on our goal. I was decent on the draws, but I'm new to centre so I should get better. I'm just typing for the sake of typing right now, but I'm falling asleep in my chair.

Peace and much love to you.

Time to Rant

Bosh, you get a resounding "WTF?" from me. Where the shit were you last night. Just in case you aren't aware - there are four quarters in basketball, not one. Drive the lane and get to the line - you are supposed to be the Raptors franchise player so play like it already. I just bought your jersey, so now's the time to step up because I can't stand that I have a nice Clinton Portis Broncos jersey and a Vancouver Canucks Todd Bertuzzi jersey just sitting there in my closet - money well spent, eh? Oh yeah, not to mention that nice VC jersey collecting dust, at least it was a Champion jersey and only cost me $15.

For the rest of the team: mediocre effort. Delfino I thought was solid, as was Kapono - but you need to get the f*ck out of the way when Bosh is grabbing the board, understand? SHIT, where the hell is T.J., Sam? Put him on the floor when he's playing well. I love Jose, but you need to realize you can't just put the fan favourites on the floor and expect the win. T.J. needed to be out there near the end. Step up your game or sit down altogether! Paul Maurice looks good in a suit and sounds good in interviews as well, but look how well the Leafs have done! F*cking Toronto teams piss me off so much it's unbelievable! The Raptors were a great team, but I think they weren't coached very well. Motivate them Sam, especially Bargniani who should be much better than he is. I guess it may not really matter anymore because word on the street is you're canned. I think that's unfortunate because I like your style on the bench, but you made your own bed, now you can sleep in it.

I'm done that rant, now onto the NHL: Les Habitants...you suck. Good comeback effort, but you need to step up your game! Your playing like the toilet seat on your logo. My predictions have gone to complete and utter shit! San Jose gets the same short lecture about how they suck, however I was very sketchy on that pick because Dallas is really surprising. Avs need to step up and lose (or win, because I'd prefer to watch Sakic lift the Cup) in seven games. Pittsburgh is right on track, I'm not a fan of New York and Maggie the Monkey differed in her opinion in that series and I want to smoke that little monkey!

Well, I'm done ranting. San Jose, Pittsburgh, Colorado win tonight, just because I say so. Is that my prediction? Not really, but that's my hope so I'll stick with it.

RIP Raptors...see you next year. To those idiots behind me in Game 3 that stole my Playoff shirt - you are douchebags and I hope you come for an interview with me someday so I can kick your douchebag asses to the curb. Get an education you neanderthals, and stop acting like idiots. By the way, the hot Raptors cheerleaders probably don't like being called "bitches," that's probably one of many reasons you're all 28 year old virgins.

Peace and much love to (the rest of) you.

Free Riding Bosh

Okay, so I'm going to switch it up a bit here, and bitch about the Raptors. When they play as a team, they are so money. I went to Game 3 and it was such an awesome time - they played amazing. In Game 4 however, there was no real distribution of points amongst the players. Game 4 was a perfect example of the Free-Riding Phenomenon. This is part of the moral hazard problem and implies that agents will free-ride off other agents to maximize their own personal utility (by minimizing costs). Bosh dropped 39 points in a 106-94 loss to Orlando on Saturday. I have to do real work right now, but here is what I came up with quickly:

When Bosh is not in the lineup or scores less than 10 points, the Raptors really suck with a winning percentage of approximately 26% and a sample size of 19 (15 of which he didn't play). When Bosh scores between 10 and 24 points the Raptors win approximately 57% of the time - absolute money (sample size 44). I'll break it down further for higher points: when Bosh scores between 25 and 29 points, the Raptors won 4/9 games this season. Between 30 and 34 points they won 4/6 games, and when he dropped more than 34 points they were 4/8 games. No real solid conclusions can be made without delving deeper into the situation (blocks, rebounds, etc.) and checking out points by other players as well as doing some t-tests, but 52% winning percentage when Bosh scores 25+ is bullshit. The other players need to step up in those games.

To put it pretty bluntly, the Raptors win 55% of the time when Bosh scores 10+ - given that Bosh did this every game (and played all 15 he missed), the Raptors would have approximately 5.5 more wins than they do now (HOLDING ALL ELSE EQUAL), and I would venture a guess that if the other boys didn't free-ride off his skills on Saturday, we would be looking at a Game 5 tonight with the series tied at 2-2 rather than hanging by a thread.

Peace and much love to you.

Quick Recap

Wow Price, why don't you just go ahead and stab me in the back after I went out and called you one of the best ever! Seriously shitty performance there. I think he'll bounce back and have a great Game 6.

Anaheim - not repeat Champs. I guess I made a bad call on that. There's always the chance and I won't rule them out, but it's hard to come back from 3-1.

San Jose: this team is back I think. I love Calgary, but the firepower of this squad is ridiculous. That and they have a solid defensive team.

Damn Philadelphia - I don't like you.

Colorado - What, What!

That's it, I'm out!

Peace and much love to you.

"Hurry, Hard! Hurry, Hard!"

Isn't it beautiful? You wait all season for some form of satisfaction and today it comes. Don't get me wrong, Mark Bell's hit on Daniel Alfredsson was both nutritious and delicious, but the Senators getting swept in four games - now that's satisfying. Sidney Crosby ices it with eight seconds remaining, but an overall well fought battle by the Pittsburgh Penguins is redemption for last year's series. It almost feels like I've won something personally. I don't know what that something is, but damn it feels great! Good luck in round two boys.

It's really a bummer that New Jersey is getting creamed in their series. I believe NYR is by far the superior team (I picked them over Jersey in 6) but I'd like to see more from Jersey. Congratulations Marc Staal on redeeming yourself (even though the Madden goal wasn't your fault). Pardon my French, but Avery: you're a dick. I don't like your brand of play at all, but I won't lie - I'd take you on my team any day. Good job by the Rangers in this series, they really are handling the Devils.

Nashville, Nashville, Nashville! I had a feeling about them surprising Detroit with a Win, but not two. I think the "Hockey Gods" are smiling down on Nashville for some reason. They are playing great hockey and Dan Ellis is playing great (First star, 95.1% save percentage). Not quite the composure of Carey Price, but the guy has skill.

My Three Stars:
#3 Dany Heatley
#2 Jason Spezza
#1 Daniel Alfredsson

Hockey Homefry of the Night: Dan Ellis, NSH

To the Senators: "So long, and thanks for all the fish."

To my devout reader(s) and the rest of the planet:

Peace and much love to you.

Carey Price, One of the Best

Patrice Brisebois, the veteran, putting one where mom hides the cookies for the only goal in the Montreal/Boston game was pretty nice. Good shot, more so stellar goaltending by both sides. Price is phenomenal - it kind of bothers me. Pogge is good and all, but I've seen him get handled live, so I know he's not that composed. Price however is one of the calmest goaltenders I've ever seen in net. His positioning is perfect and he doesn't often give out many rebounds. Good on him. I honestly think (as long as sophmore syndrome doesn't kick in) that he will be one of the best ever by the time he retires. Always the Canadiens with the ridiculous goaltenders - bastards.

I like Calgary as much as a non-Calgary-fan could. I do however need to throw out mad props to my main man Joe Thornton. He finally pots one and in the dying seconds of the game for the win. Great tip, and hard work on the shift - I love it. I was a little (a lot) in the bag last night, so I didn't catch much of the game, but I did see the goal (and of course all the highlights this morning).

Anaheim finally steps up their game and record a "W," but I'm still unsure of my pick there. From the highlights/games I've seen, they seem to be a weaker team. Anyone who says they don't want it as bad is full of shit and should lock him/herself in a closet and never come out. That is the bullshit statement of the century: "They didn't want it as much." Oh, they want it just as much but maybe they weren't as good or lost due to pure probability, or went out drinking the night before, etc. Anyways, Pronger with a pair - good to see, hopefully they can take their heads out of their asses and win this thing.

As for the other two games, Colorado absolutely owned and Philly was dominant. Briere is money and what the shit was Mike Richards doing in that celebration? If anyone knows, drop me a note - that was messed.

April 14 Matchups

Too bad about Colorado tonight, they should have been on that puck for the icing in overtime. Sakic potted one, and that's always nice to see. Good game anyways, overtime for the third consecutive game, great series so far.

Detroit should have swept this series. They need to absolutely own the next two games and regain momentum for the next round. Arnott's shot was an absolute bomb tonight. Good on him.

GO PENS GO! Do I like the Pens, they're fun to watch - but I'm not going to buy a jersey anytime soon. That being said, Ottawa are a bunch of pansies and I despise that team, so it was nice to see them get taken over in the third. Nice goal by Sid the Kid to go ahead, then Staal and Hossa potting goals too - good stuff. The passing on the Talbot goal was beautiful! Every Penguin touched the puck. I have to admit, Foligno's goal was dirty too.

I was on the ice for the first time in what seems like a month. I went to the Winning Attitude to get my stick cut down more (I don't have a saw here in Guelph) to regain my handle and it seemed to work. I was pretty rusty, but I did pot two breakaway goals (kick double-deek & Forsberg) and then potted a beauty in a little shootout afterwards. I came in from the outside and pulled the Bure (off the skate). Not quite as pretty as Pavel's, but it was a nice confidence booster none-the-less.

Flames Game 3 Comeback and Logos

Now that is some heart right there. They got momentum off a huge hit on Marleau and started the comeback. Nolan gets the winner and Phaneuf, Iginla and Langkow also tally. What a great game! That was entertaining! Props go out to the Calgary fans who are the best in hockey; if the Leafs had fans like that at their games I think it would really help them out. I wonder if that hypothesis can be tested...meh...I'm not doing it...now anyways.

Oh, here's a geeky logo I made which my Economics of Sports Professor, John Palmer, put on his blog because it is the nerdiest economics/mathematics hockey logo ever.

And although this next one is admittedly both a rip-off of the Shrek Donkey and a pretty nasty concept:

This was my buddy Blake's idea, I just quickly put it into action - The 1972 Summit Series jersey in blue with the greatest city ever on the back - Stoney Creek, Ontario:

Admittedly another rip-off of the Autobots logo, but with some added Canadian flare. This was done on graph paper in my spare time because I'm bored as shit here in Guelph.

And now, the pride and joy of my logo collection and the first logo I ever created. In my first year at the University of Guelph, I was in Mountain residence and we put together a hockey team:

I scanned this t-shirt I had that said "Beer: Helping white guys dance since 1892." From that you get the beer, the hand and the face. Then I drew the mountain in paint copying an old Colorado Rockies logo. the words are self explanatory. Next I drew the puck (again in paint) and actually drew the helmet in paint too...pretty dandy. It was incomplete though - my mom said he couldn't have all his teeth so I knocked one out, and voila!

Todays Matchups, etc.

Well, I guess I should blog pretty much daily to either bitch or complain or whatnot. If you haven't read "The Brian Burke Theory," check it out - it's my best piece of work to date. If you're looking to see any of my graphs or my data, drop me a note. I compiled salary and stats for the league in 2006-07. It's a pretty giant file and a lot of work went into it but I don't mind sharing it if people are interested. Also if you have any intuitive ways to add hits to my equations let me know. I put a massive amount of time into that paper and am still awaiting a mark.

Rangers/Devils, game 3 - what the shit, Brodeur? Three shitty goals in three games - completely unlike him; what are you going to do though? He's soon to be statistically the best ever; hopefully he can get a fourth cup to tie Roy in that respect. John Madden's goal was brutal - I think it went off Mark Staal. And what about Avery? He's a little shit, but you have to admire his ballsiness and willingness to do anything to win. That screening he pulled against Brodeur, kind of genius, I can't lie. He's probably worse than Dino Ciccarelli was.

I missed the Philly game, but apparently I didn't miss much, the highlights were short on TSN, and Ovechkin did nothing so I really don't care to see extended ones. Go Caps.

So Iggy just scored to make it 3-1 Sharks, brutal start for the Flames, but who else but Iginla from Phaneuf to get them on the board. Kipper was soft to start the game but at the same time the Flames pretty much just stank as a whole. Hopefully Cujo is money tonight. Remember when Cujo and the Leafs had heart? I don’t really either.

Okay, so the Habs played game three versus the Bruins today and it was a pretty good match. Tim Thomas gets two 'Andre the Giant' thumbs up. He made several huge saves in OT and definitely stole the show. As for the game winner, who else but Marc Savard - he deserves it. In the game last night he made this dirty little fake pass back to the defenseman that the Habs forward totally bit on. They didn't score, but it was beautiful; Cherry showed it. Cherry picked him to score for Boston last night, but he did it tonight instead - beautiful pass by Schaefer. While on the topic of last nights game - Kovalev's OT winner was such a dirty shot - Top Shelf, Where Mom Hides the Cookies.

2008 STANLEY CUP FINALS PREDICTIONS

This has been up on my Facebook page since before the playoffs.

CONFERENCE QUARTERS


Eastern Conference:


Montreal* vs. Boston

As a Leafs fan you hate to say either way, but look for a resounding victory by Montreal here. Kovalev and the Habs have way too much depth and speed for Zdeno Chara and the Boston Bruins to handle. Having taken the season series 8-0, Montreal should have no trouble with Boston in the post-season. Habs take the series 4-0 – Price will be huge.


Pittsburgh* vs. Ottawa

Now this one is different, as a Leafs fan you LOVE to say this: Pittsburgh dominates. Last year I was stupid in choosing the Pens to beat the Sens, but this season is different. The Penguins have far too much depth with Crosby, Malkin and Hossa, and now with the return of Gary Roberts. With my favourite player Alfie the Clown injured look for the Penguins to take this series 4-1.


Washington* vs. Philadelphia

This will be a series. Two teams that ended the season in completely different forms: the Caps having dominated down the stretch to squeak into the playoffs in their final game, and the Flyers almost ended up missing the playoffs because of bad play, but squeaked through in the end after a solid finish to the season. I made the mistake of picking the Pens over Ottawa last year because I wanted Crosby to win. Still, Ovechkin and the Capitals finished the season like no other team in the East, not to mention their depth between the wickets, and so I have some faith. Washington wins this series 4-3.


New Jersey vs. NY Rangers*

NYR took the season series 7-0-1, but the season is wiped out of memory when the post-season starts. This will be the goaltending duel of the playoffs, containing the two top tenders in the East and arguably the league. Martin Brodeur is going to take over Patty Roy’s place as greatest of all time, and Lundqvist has been amazing for the Rangers. The Rangers have unbelievable scoring depth, but have always neglected to bolster their defense. The Devils on the other hand are known for defense, but forwards like Parise and Elias will help them light the lamp. Let’s face it, Jagr was shit this season, but he stepped it up towards the end. With Jagr and Shanahan’s combined 5 Stanley Cups and veteran leadership, look for the Rangers to take this series 4-2.


Western Conference:


Detroit* vs. Nashville

So they won the President’s Trophy for the 30th consecutive time: good for them! Seriously though, this team is ridiculous. Datsyuk, Zetterberg and Holmstrom own. If they aren’t owning, then Franzen, Cleary, Draper, Maltby, Samuelsson and/or Hudler step it up. Not to mention Chelios, Lidstrom (70 pts.) and Rafalski (55 pts.) on the defensive end and a solid Chris Os-actually-good and Hasek protecting the twine. Oh yeah, and a combined 24 Stanley Cup rings…Detroit in 5.


San Jose* vs. Calgary

This is probably my favourite matchup of the first round. I have no problem with either team winning; it’s looking like chance will take over in this one. Flip a coin – seriously. San Jose is definitely the favourite, but Calgary has skill. Iggy with his second 50 goal season, Langkow (underrated – seriously), Phaneuf and Kipper are awesome. At the other end, Nabokov, Thornton, Cheechoo, Marleau, Michalek, Rivet and the addition of Campbell at the deadline – scary. Not to mention Mike ‘Stone Hands’ Grier who admittedly adds depth and future Hall-of-Famer J.R. who was second in the league with ten game-winning-goals (admittedly this is a bullshit stat, but whatever). San Jose takes this series in six games.


Minnesota vs. Colorado*

Gaborik, Demitra, Backstrom and one of my new favourite players in Brent Burns lead the Wild. As for the Avs, does this seem familiar to you? Sakic, Forsberg, Foote, Hejduk…Rob Blake, Patrick Roy. Seriously though, the new/old look Avalanche with the addition of my boy Ryan Smyth as well as Brunette, Wolski, Svatos, Stastny and Theodore (who was pretty good this year) are a contender. Since the return of Peter Forsberg the Avs have been red hot. I like the Wild, but Colorado takes this series 4-2.


Anaheim* vs. Dallas

Can you say intense? Teemu Selanne and Scott Niedermeyer back in the league and helping out their boys. The Ducks are my pick to win the Stanley Cup again this year so this one’s pretty self-explanatory. Dallas is a great club with Turco manning the pipes and Modano, Ribeiro, Lehtinen, the newly added Richards and Captain Ethan Morrow up front. Zubov and Boucher need to be healthy for this one because they’ll need the help on defense. Getzlaf, Perry, Kunitz, Bertuzzi and Selanne up front along with their checking line of Rob Niedermeyer, Pahlsson and Moen will be pretty damn tough to play. J.S.G. playing back-stop is always some help too. Oh yeah, and they have one or two decent d-men to worry about. Brian Burke’s “defense wins Cups” mentality is brilliant. No team with a lack of depth on defense will ever win the Cup. This will be a hard-fought battle that will end in six games.


My Competition with Maggie the Monkey

Maggie's Conference Quarterfinal Picks

Eastern Conference: Montreal, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, New Jersey
Western Conference: Detroit, San Jose, Minnesota, Anaheim

5/8 with Maggie. Screw you Maggie, what the hell do you know anyways? You're just a monkey.

McCabe Doesn't Suck...I Swear

I wrote this a while ago and thought I'd post it here:

I was in buying a new twig yesterday and I had a conversation about the Leafs with one of the guys there. He said he wanted to see a stat of the Leafs record with Colaiacovo in the lineup because he thought we would be well over .500 with him in (in case you're wondering what that stat is all-time 49-43-8 after tonight’s dismal performance - I just worked that out). This got me to thinking: What is the Leafs record THIS SEASON with Colaiacovo in the lineup? And for that matter, what about McCabe, Kaberle, Kubina?

Colaiacovo (13-12-2):
I calculated our projected points given that Colaiacovo played all 74 games this season, and it turns out we would be (36-33-5) with 77 total points, and just 4 points back of Philadelphia for 8th. Not really a huge step up, but a jump.

Kaberle: This is pretty easy since he's played every game this season, so we can skip him.

Kubina (28-27-8):
Again, same process - we would be a projected (33-32-9) with 75 points and 6 points back of Philadelphia. So approximately in the same shitty position we're in now.

McCabe (22-16-7):
Now, here's where it gets interesting. With McCabe in the lineup, we have the above stated record. Projected to the full 74 games we’ve played so far this season we would have a record of (36-26-12) giving us 84 points and seating us currently in 7th place in the Eastern Conference – PLAYOFF contention!

The final standings in the Eastern Conference given that McCabe played every game for the Leafs and holding all else equal would look as follows:

The Brian Burke Theory

“The only way you cannot have salary cap problems is to have a crappy team.” – Brian Burke, Executive Vice President and General Manager of the Anaheim Ducks


1. Introduction

The monopsonist National Hockey League is the sole buyer of the elite hockey talent residing in North America and also draws the elite from the rest of the world.[1] The salary cap has been put in place for two main reasons: to maintain a constant distribution of revenue between owners and players and to restore some competitive balance in the league. [2] There can no longer be a New York Yankees of hockey franchise, like the 2002 Detroit Red Wings who purchased a Stanley Cup with estimated total player salaries of $70 million, because of the cap system.[3] In theory, given the salary cap in the NHL, teams with higher average playing ability will be near the top of the league in points and will have lower than average marginal factor costs. Because there is a large cap range (between $28 million and $44 million) there tend to be large differences in salaries.[4] As such, those teams that spend more will tend to have more success.

It is not an understatement to call the general manager of a National Hockey League franchise the most valuable person on the team. It is the job of the general manager to compile a team whose on-ice product attracts fans and in turn helps maintain financial stability for the franchise.[5] Demand for hockey is dependent on the on-ice product. Put together a winning team that is entertaining to watch and the revenue will flow (see Figure B1). Some teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs have a relatively inelastic demand curve for gate receipts, but the majority of teams rely on wins increase these and other revenues (Figure B2).[6]

The addition of the salary cap in the National Hockey League has made the job of the General Managers of the league much more complex. General Managers must contemplate a strategy that will attract the best players while at the same time maintaining their budget. Brian Burke, Executive Vice President and General Manager of the 2007 Stanley Cup Champion Anaheim Ducks is quoted as saying, “in a cap system it’s really hard to repeat because other teams get to reload quicker.”[7] He refers to the fact that at the end of a season, some players become restricted and unrestricted free agents, and due to the cap restraint other teams are able to outbid a successful team for their talent, and so it is difficult to repeat as Stanley Cup Champions. An example of this is the signing of restricted free agent Dustin Penner by Kevin Lowe of the Edmonton Oilers. The Oilers were forced to forgo their first, second and third round draft picks in 2008 because of this signing.[8] General Managers and Owners have argued that since the inception of free agency, players’ salaries are higher than their marginal physical products.[9]

The hypothesis that playing ability and marginal factor costs are positively and negatively related to team points earned respectively is examined using diverse measures of playing ability for forwards, defensemen and goaltenders. Many distinct statistics were compiled for this study but only a select few were used. Players are measured by their contribution to team wins. Both forwards and defensemen are rated based on even-strength, short-handed, power-play, game-winning and game-deciding goals, the latter referring to winning shootout goals and are independent of a players total goals statistic. Power-play, short-handed and even strength assists as well as plus/minus, penalty minutes, blocked shots and an assortment of team statistics were taken into account in these calculations (see Appendix A). Forwards are additionally measured on face-off percentage and percentage of team face-offs taken as this contributes to team possession. All statistics are measured on a per-game basis.

Statistics such as hits, giveaways and takeaways were considered, but were deemed to be poor measures of a player’s contribution to goals for or against his team. There was no insightful way to directly apply these statistics to goals for or against contribution.

Goaltenders are rated on goals against average, save percentage and points earned for their team while in goal. Goaltenders are compared against league-wide averages on a game by game basis.

Some players thrive in penalty killing and other defensive situations while others are more offensively minded. Varied measures have been taken into consideration to attempt to credit all types of players and not just point-getters. Some players are important to their teams because they have the ability to gain momentum through a fight, a big hit or drawing a penalty. These are very difficult things to measure and will be ignored in this study.

2. Playing Ability and Marginal Factor Cost

The intuition behind this measure of playing ability is as follows; a player is as good as the expected number of goals he will contribute to per game. What this means is that if a player contributes negatively to his team, this will show up in his playing ability. His playing ability is a function of his skill and the skill of his teammates.

The formula takes the sum of a player’s goals (non power play or game winning), assists (non power play), and +/- per game into consideration. Next, it subtracts the product of average number of penalties by the player per game and one minus the net team penalty kill percentage for that season to calculate goals against caused by the player. The player’s power play contributions are calculated by taking the ratio of his power play goals and assists (per game) to the team’s average net power play goals per game and added to the equation. The next crucially important calculation measures the player’s clutch performances (not ability). In other words, the number of game winning goals or game deciding shootout goals the player has scored and averaging this on a per game basis. For example, if a player has played in 10 games and has 1 GWG and 2 GDGs he will have an additional 0.3 goals per game tallied for his team as a contribution to wins per game. Note that this is a somewhat questionable statistic as players may score game winning goals early in the game, and this unfortunately cannot be taken into consideration. Blocked shots are then added to this mix. The product of blocked shots per game and one minus the team save percentage is added to the total. The intuition behind this is that if a team stops 90% of their shots, then a player who blocks 25 shots in a season has saved approximately 2.5 goals against.

This total will demonstrate the player’s total positive or negative contribution to team goals per game. Because this number can be negative, the average goals needed for a .500 record, approximately 2.7, is added to this number such that a players’ marginal factor cost is and playing ability can’t be negative.[10] This final tally is multiplied by 82; the number of games per team in a season, and this is the player’s playing ability.

Additionally add the product of face-off win percentage minus 0.5, and percentage of team face-offs taken prior to multiplying by 82 for forwards. This is just a small measure of contribution to team possession of the puck. Face-offs are an important part of the game and can have a large impact on goals scored in a game.[11]

Goaltenders playing ability is a function of many variables. The goaltender’s goals against average is subtracted from the league goals against average. Instinctively, if a goaltender’s goals against average is less than the league average he is more likely to win. That number is then added to the goaltenders save percentage minus the league average save percentage, and again if the goaltender stops more than the average goaltender in the league he has a higher winning probability. Two times the goaltender’s total wins plus his overtime losses are divided by 82 games calculating the average points earned for his team per team game played. This number is added to the others and 2.7 is added to the total to keep consistent player measurements. This number is multiplied by 82 games and this represents the goaltenders playing ability.

The calculation of estimated average playing ability separated forwards, defensemen and goaltenders from each other and weighted them accordingly. A team is assumed to have twelve forwards, six defensemen and one goaltender play during a game. Average playing ability of the forwards was multiplied by twelve and the average playing ability of defensemen was multiplied by six. The goaltenders playing ability was calculated as a weighted average, taking into consideration games played. The summation of these weighted average estimated playing abilities were taken for each team representing estimated total playing ability. An example calculation is presented in Appendix C.

Marginal factor cost (or price per unit of playing ability) is calculated by taking the team salaries and dividing them by each team’s respective estimated total playing ability (See Appendix A for all equations).


3. Considerations


Some unobserved data not taken into account must be considered. Offsetting penalties, including fighting majors, where both teams get penalties and neither has a power play are not recorded. This could factor as a slight negative impact on a player’s estimated playing ability. There are players acquired mid-season in trades or waivers who didn’t play the full season for their team. Some players were injured for long periods of time during the season and teams were forced to dress players normally playing in the minors, and this could have significantly affected their team standings. If a player or goaltender played less than twenty games, there stats were disregarded as they were considered outliers. Players with missing data were also disregarded.
Those players who are the elite on the ice generally play against the elite of the other team. This will skew their statistics but unfortunately can’t be taken into account here. Ice time, a statistic that is readily available, will not be considered in this study since better players will generally play more. A measure called production, which measures the average amount of time on ice between points for a particular player has not been taken into account as it does not measure goals against while the player is on-ice. Opponents the team faces are not considered. Age is not taken into account but must be reflected on for salary reasons since young players generally make less.[12] The Pittsburgh Penguins had a much younger team than most and therefore lower salaries, but were still a very competitive team.[13]

Marginal factor costs of individual players were calculated and recorded but will not be taken into consideration as a weighted average estimate of overall playing ability and total player salaries was a more promising estimate due to differing sample sizes.

Some notable assumptions must also be considered. All statistics are from the 2006-07 NHL season. Games played by a goaltender are calculated as the summation of wins, losses and overtime losses and will not include those games in which a goaltender was not credited with a win, a loss or an overtime loss. Those are games where either the goaltender is pulled and a lead change occurs or the goaltender replaces another goaltender and no lead change occurs.

Another assumption to consider is the calculation of goals per game to end with 50% of the points (a .500 record). The difference between .500 and a team’s actual point percentage was calculated and multiplied by their recorded average goals per game to find their goals per game above .500. Their average goals per game for .500 are then calculated by subtracting this value from their actual average goals per game. The league average of these numbers was calculated and estimated at approximately 2.7. Something to consider is that since three-point games are available given single points for overtime/shootout losses, the summation of point percentage above .500 is greater than zero.

The salary cap midpoint was then taken into account as a separate measure. The range of values that could be spent on players in the 2006-07 NHL season was between $28,000,000 and $44,000,000, and the midpoint was $36,000,000.[14] New marginal factor costs were calculated taking the midpoint as team salary. This had very obviously the same results as the average playing ability. Graphs showing the results can be found in Appendix D.

4. Results

The results of the study were somewhat as predicted. Those teams with higher average playing abilities tended to be near the top of the league in points (see Figure D1). An R2 coefficient of 0.673 was calculated using Microsoft Excel. Marginal factor costs showed a slight negative correlation with team points (R2 = 0.078) as hypothesized (Figure D2). This result was slightly skewed since the Washington Capitals spent the least amount of any team in the league by a margin of $5,624,894.[15] Removing them as an outlier found more promising results with respect to marginal factor cost as can be seen in Figure D5 (R2 = 0.235).

The teams that spent more did tend to have more points, but this was not an overly significant finding (Figure D3, R2 = 0.109). Setting the salaries of each team equal to the midpoint of the salary cap brought on expected results. There was a tendency for teams with lower marginal factor costs to have more points (Figure D4, R2 = 0.684). This is virtually the same as comparing average playing abilities to points.

5. Conclusions and Future Considerations

This study has shown that given the salary cap, marginal factor costs will have a slight negative correlation with points earned. Also, average playing ability is a significant estimate of points for a team in the National Hockey League. This can be explained intuitively; since playing abilities have been calculated ex-post to the season, teams with higher average playing abilities will have done better than other teams or their numbers would have been lower with respect to points earned. Since goals for and against are accounted for, playing ability should be a good indicator of points.

Future studies should be done using samples from other seasons. All post-lockout era data should be compared with pre-lockout data to see if the salary cap has had an impact on competition as was intended. It would be shrewd to assume that playing ability measures would be positively correlated to points, however due to the large differences in salaries in the pre-lockout era; it is more than likely marginal factor costs were be positively correlated with points given unlimited player salaries and bidding wars due to free agency.[16]

[1] National Hockey League, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Hockey_League
[2] Salary Cap, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salary_cap#Salary_cap_in_the_NHL
[3] Detroit Red Wings, http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/hockey/news/2002/09/11/2002_redwingspreview/
[4] NHL Salary Cap Hits $44 Million, http://www.cbc.ca/sports/story/2006/06/27/nhl-salarycap.html
[5] Brian Burke, http://www.speakers.ca/burke_brian.aspx
[6] In class-discussion, February 28, 2008, Economics of Sports, Professor John Palmer
[7] The Element: Brian Burke Interview, http://ducks.nhl.tv/team/console?type=fvod&id=5299
[8] Burke Still Smarting From Penner Deal, http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/news_story/?ID=229580&hubname=
[9] Leeds & von Allmen The Economics of Sports, 3rd Edition, page 265
[10] We ignore this step when calculating marginal revenue product as a player can contribute negatively to team wins, it is important in calculating a player’s price per unit of playing ability as that number can’t be negative.
[11] Face-Offs, http://www.behindthenet.ca/faceoff.html
[12] NHL, NHLPA agree to tentative deal, http://www.cbc.ca/sports/story/2005/07/13/nhl050713.html
[13] 2006-07 Pittsburgh Penguins season, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006-07_Pittsburgh_Penguins_season
[14] NHL salary cap hits $44 million, http://www.cbc.ca/sports/story/2006/06/27/nhl-salarycap.html
[15] 2006-07 (Unofficial) Final Cap Numbers, http://www.nhlscap.com/2006-07_cap.htm
[16] Leeds & von Allmen The Economics of Sports, 3rd Edition, page 265

References

National Hockey League. (2008). STATS. Retrieved March 14 – 20, 2008, from World Wide Web: http://www.nhl.com/nhlstats/app

Sports Matters. (Tuesday, January 17, 2006). NHL Team Salaries. Retrieved March 18, 2008, from World Wide Web: http://sportsmatter.blogspot.com/2006/01/nhl-team-salaries.html

TSN. (2008). Payroll Commitments. Retrieved March 18, 2008, from World Wide Web: http://www.tsn.ca/

Anaheim Ducks. (2008). State of the Franchise – Brian Burke. Retrieved April 1, 2008, from World Wide Web: http://ducks.nhl.tv/team/console

Wikipedia. (2008). National Hockey League. Retrieved April 1, 2008, from World Wide Web: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Hockey_League

Wikipedia. (2008). Salary Cap. Retrieved April 1, 2008, from World Wide Web: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salary_cap#Salary_cap_in_the_NHL

Sports Illustrated. (2002). Detroit Red Wings. Retrieved April 1, 2008, from World Wide Web: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/hockey/news/2002/09/11/2002_redwingspreview/

CBC. (June 27, 2006). NHL Salary Cap Hits $44 Million. Retrieved April 1, 2008, from World Wide Web: http://www.cbc.ca/sports/story/2006/06/27/nhl-salarycap.html

Speakers’ Spotlight. (2008). Brian Burke, Anaheim Mighty Ducks Executive Vice President & GM. Retrieved April 1, 2008, from World Wide Web: http://www.speakers.ca/burke_brian.aspx

Anaheim Ducks. (2008). The Element: Brian Burke Interview. Retrieved April 1, 2008, from World Wide Web: http://ducks.nhl.tv/team/console?type=fvod&id=5299

TSN. (February 13, 2008). Burke Still Smarting From Penner Deal. Retrieved April 1, 2008, from World Wide Web: http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/news_story/?ID=229580&hubname=

Leeds and von Allmen. (2008). The Economics of Sports, 3rd. Edition. Pearson Education, Inc. (pg. 265).

CBC. (July 14, 2005). NHL salary cap hits $44 million. Retrieved April 1, 2008, from World Wide Web: http://www.cbc.ca/sports/story/2006/06/27/nhl-salarycap.html

NHLSCAP.com. (2008). 2006-07 (Unofficial) Final Cap Numbers. Retrieved April 1, 2008, from World Wide Web: http://www.nhlscap.com/2006-07_cap.htm

Behind the Net.ca. (2005). Face-Offs. Retrieved April 1, 2008, from World Wide Web: http://www.behindthenet.ca/faceoff.html